COVID outbreak in China: Expert predicts more than 60% population will be infected in China over the next 90 days

COVID outbreak in China: Expert predicts more than 60% population will be infected in China over the next 90 days

The COVID situation in China has startled everyone. Despite tall claims around its ‘zero COVID’ policy the China government is facing one of the worst COVID situations currently.
Amid this situation, a tweet of Eric Feigl-Ding, an epidemiologist is being circulated widely.

“THERMONUCLEAR BAD—Hospitals completely overwhelmed in China ever since restrictions dropped. Epidemiologist estimate >60% of & 10% of Earth’s population likely infected over next 90 days. Deaths likely in the millions—plural. This is just the start,” Eric has tweeted sharing a video from a hospital.
” Doubling time in China may not be days anymore. Doubling time now possibly “hours” says some experts — let that sink in. R is hard to calculate if doubling is & the is in deep trouble,” he writes in another tweet.

In a series of tweet, Eric has talked about the COVID situation in China, explosion in funeral services, sharp increase in deaths, overloaded morgues.
Coronavirus: Hoarse voice among top COVID symptoms; know more about this

BF.7 is driving COVID cases in China
BF.7, a subvariant of BA.5, one of the most widely circulated sub variants of Omicron, is the major strain of COVID.

The flare-up in Beijing started on October 27, the Global Times reported on November 10. “It was caused by infections from other places and has caused a number of related cluster infections in the city. The Beijing authorities on Thursday further strengthened epidemic prevention management in public places, requiring people entering these places to take temperature measurements and show their negative nucleic acid certificates as required,” the report added.

“Do you know some elderly people’s lungs are damaged? Their lungs will turn white & fester”
Social media is flooded with videos of COVID victims. One of many such pleas has been shared by a Twitter account Jennifer Zeng. Narrating the ordeal of a young girl, Zeng has shared that: “Sorry, no time to do English subtitles, but here is a summary of what this girl in #Beijing says: On Dec 17, My dad was very sick. We went to 3 hospitals to no avail. 1st hospital is Chaoyang Hospital. Minimum waiting time 4 hours. We had to go to 2nd one, Huayin Hospital. During the time my dad got an infusion there, 6 died. But they didn’t have a bed. We returned, & tried to find a hospital that still had a bed. I went to Huayin in the night again to buy medicine. I saw several elderly ppl waiting. But I am afraid they will die before they can enter the hospital. I then went to Civil Aviation Hospital. They ran out of oxygen already. A doctor said, your dad’s illness is serious. We don’t have a bed. You can go inside to check. You even don’t have a place to stand there, let alone a bed. Go to Chaoyang Hospital to check. They have more patients there. If someone dies, a bed will be available. We only had 10-plus people died today. So only 10 plus beds became available. So no chance for you here. I want to save my dad. No chance. So many elderly people, all waiting for a bed. Don’t say how slight your symptoms are. Do you know what novel #coronavirus #pneumonia means? Do you know some elderly people’s lungs are damaged? Their lungs will turn white & fester. They can’t wait until a doctor can see them. They can’t wait until there is a bed.”

“…roughly 200 bodies arriving each day”
“…roughly 200 bodies arriving each day at the crematorium, from 30 or 40 bodies on a typical day. The increased workload has taxed the crematorium staff, many of whom have become infected with the fast-spreading virus in recent days,” news agency ANI has reported a source from Beijing Dongjiao Crematory.

Up to one million people in China could die
As per a model, China will face a COVID death toll of half a million people by April. The number of COVID deaths is likely to go up to 1.6 million deaths by the end of 2023, the model developed and updated regularly by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, Seattle estimates.

According to Ali Mokdad the epidemiologist involved in the model, deaths in China could rise to close to 9,000 a day by the end of March.

What can be done?
The model estimates that reimposing restrictions, giving third and fourth doses of vaccination, and giving high antiviral drug treatment for at-risk groups can reduce the number of COVID deaths.

It also predicted that widespread use of masks can reduce the number of deaths to 2,30,000.

Another study which is yet to be peer reviewed suggests that if 85% of the population gets a fourth vaccine the rise of COVID infection in China could slow down.

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Author: Shirley